Investment and Alternative Investment in 2022

The #equitymarkets, as we will point out in further posts, have priced this already. The credit markets are beginning to price this and commodities like copper are doing what metals do. Its the YoY rate of change of these assets you need to look at.

The #bondmarket and #oil are the two assets not pricing in future recession yet (due to the supply issues in #energy). Bonds finally decided to join the party and the trend of higher yields lower equities has probably ended. Lower stocks now equal lower yields….

The final show to add to this will be oil, which will break lower. 

Bond yields falling and oil falling will give the excuse to the #Fed to hike prices, maybe in May and then pause (or do one more in June). The bond markets will then begin to price it out.

However, the next 4 weeks are going to be highly unsettling as every position will take a hit. There will be no safe place to hide (except maybe bonds – but most people are short those). 

#Crypto is full of panic. Online debates, mudslinging and fake news reports is usually a sign of approaching the lows. March 2020 was very similar in levels of fear, anger, vitriol, shock and panic. 

Bear markets and recessions are hard and can be of course very financially scary but they give HUGE opportunities. One of the current opportunities for steady growth has to be Whisky. 

We have all read the reports of the chap that bought two casks in 1994, a Macallan for £3200 and a Tobermory for £1500 and later sold them for £225k ! 

And while returns of 4700 % are exceptional it’s not in common.